NFL Best Bets Week 16: Three total wagers including an under in Chicago vs. Arizona

Publish date: 2024-05-31

A small winning week is something that you won’t find me complaining about, but it feels like we left some meat on the bone this week. First, the Atlanta Falcons threw a red zone interception when a field goal would have gotten us a cover. They let Bryce Young drive down the field and kick a last-second field goal to lose outright. The Philadelphia Eagles were covering or pushing for the entire game, and then two fourth-quarter interceptions paired with allowing Drew Lock to go 92 yards in less than two minutes gave them an outright loss. If one of those games breaks our way, it’s a much better week. But that’s the NFL in the year 2023.

Last week’s record: 3-3, +0.30 units

Season record: 38-40-1, -2.65 units, -3.2% ROI

Just three plays to start the week, but I’m confident at least one play will be added as the week progresses. Last week, I was able to have plays on all four days, and I’m not sure I’ll be able to get a play on Saturday for this week, but who knows how the injury reports will break, so stay tuned. Good luck to us!

NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.

Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.

All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds from BetMGM and locked when the pick was made.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams over 44.5 (-110)

The Rams’ offense has been one of the league’s best when all its “stars” are healthy, and that’s what we are getting on Thursday night in Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua paired with Sean McVay’s scheme has been a lethal combination and I don’t think this Saints defense is up for the task. In games against an offense with a pulse this year (Tampa Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Detroit), the Saints’ defense is giving up an average of 27.6 points per game. I think the Rams’ offense is the best of the bunch and easily can get into the 30s in this matchup.

Worst line to bet: Over 45 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears under 44.5 (-110)

I’m not sure if many realize it, but since acquiring Montez Sweat, the Chicago Bears’ defense has been playing well. According to rbsdm.com, the Bears rank second in EPA/Play and seventh in success rate. On the other side of the ball, since Kyler Murray has returned from injury, the Cardinals offense ranks 18th in EPA/Play and 26th in success rate. This is a pretty poor matchup for the Cardinals, and I’m thinking about grabbing some Bears in this one, but I have a much bigger edge on the under.

Worst line to bet: Under 44 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers over 46 (-110)

This is a great matchup for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens passing attack. Jackson is much better against zone coverage than man, and the 49ers are a heavy zone team on defense. If the Ravens can find success through the air and pair that with their diverse rushing game, Lamar Jackson might gain some steam for MVP. But I’m not here to bet on the Ravens to win. I’m betting on points. The 49ers offense is good against almost every defensive coverage while also churning out yards on the ground. Brock Purdy and his plethora of weapons haven’t been stopped when healthy this season, and there is no reason to believe that happens on Christmas night.

Worst line to bet: Over 46.5 (-110)

Added Wednesday

Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100) vs. Detroit Lions

Worst line to bet: Vikings +3 (-110)

Added Thursday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (-110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Worst line to bet: Buccaneers -1.5 (-110)

(Photo of Montez Sweat: Jason Miller/Getty Images)

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